The current best estimate of the first spring diatom bloom in the Strait of Georgia is 2025-03-12. That estimate is based on a run of the SOG biophysical model for deep estuaries [1] with the following parameters:
2009 has the median bloom date in an ensemble of SOG runs that use historical wind, meteorological, and river flow data from 1980 through 2010 as future forcing data after 2025-03-08.
Best estimate bounds on the bloom date are:
[1] Allen, S. E. and M. A. Wolfe. (2013). Hindcast of the Timing of the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the Strait of Georgia, 1968-2010. Progress in Oceanography, volume 115, pp 6-13. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.05.026
The forcing data used to drive the SOG model is obtained from several sources:
This site presents output from a research project. Results are not expected to be a robust prediction of the timing of the spring bloom. At this point, we believe such a prediction is not possible before mid-February using any model and this model is not yet tested.
Actual to Ensemble Forcing Transition Date | Median | 5th Centile Early Bound | 95th Centile Late Bound | Earliest Ensemble Result | Latest Ensemble Result | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloom Date | Ensemble Member | Bloom Date | Ensemble Member | Bloom Date | Ensemble Member | Bloom Date | Ensemble Member | Bloom Date | Ensemble Member | |
2025-03-08 | 2025-03-12 | 2009 | 2025-03-10 | 2005 | 2025-03-22 | 2002 | 2025-03-10 | 2005 | 2025-03-26 | 2003 |
2025-03-07 | 2025-03-11 | 1998 | 2025-03-08 | 2009 | 2025-03-21 | 2010 | 2025-03-08 | 2009 | 2025-03-26 | 2003 |
2025-03-06 | 2025-03-12 | 2009 | 2025-03-07 | 2005 | 2025-03-25 | 1995 | 2025-03-07 | 2005 | 2025-03-26 | 2003 |
2025-03-05 | 2025-03-12 | 2009 | 2025-03-07 | 2008 | 2025-03-25 | 1995 | 2025-03-07 | 2008 | 2025-03-26 | 2003 |
2025-03-04 | 2025-03-14 | 2007 | 2025-03-06 | 2008 | 2025-03-27 | 2003 | 2025-03-06 | 2008 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-03-03 | 2025-03-08 | 1996 | 2025-03-05 | 2010 | 2025-03-26 | 2003 | 2025-03-05 | 2010 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-03-02 | 2025-03-12 | 1993 | 2025-03-05 | 2010 | 2025-03-26 | 2003 | 2025-03-05 | 2010 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-03-01 | 2025-03-13 | 2004 | 2025-03-04 | 1998 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-04 | 1998 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-28 | 2025-03-14 | 2004 | 2025-03-05 | 1998 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-05 | 1998 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-27 | 2025-03-16 | 1998 | 2025-03-07 | 1996 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-06 | 1984 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-26 | 2025-03-16 | 1998 | 2025-03-08 | 1984 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-07 | 1996 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-25 | 2025-03-16 | 1998 | 2025-03-08 | 1996 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-08 | 1996 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-23 | 2025-03-13 | 1991 | 2025-03-02 | 2003 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-02 | 2003 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-22 | 2025-03-14 | 2004 | 2025-03-04 | 1998 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-03-02 | 2003 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-21 | 2025-03-13 | 1987 | 2025-03-02 | 1990 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-02-28 | 2003 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-20 | 2025-03-13 | 1987 | 2025-02-28 | 2003 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-02-27 | 2005 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-19 | 2025-03-12 | 1993 | 2025-03-01 | 1990 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 | 2025-02-25 | 2005 | 2025-04-07 | 1999 |
2025-02-18 | 2025-03-08 | 1986 | 2025-02-25 | 2001 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 | 2025-02-23 | 2005 | 2025-04-06 | 2009 |
2025-02-17 | 2025-03-08 | 1986 | 2025-02-22 | 2005 | 2025-03-27 | 2006 | 2025-02-21 | 2010 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 |
2025-02-16 | 2025-03-12 | 2009 | 2025-02-22 | 2005 | 2025-03-27 | 2006 | 2025-02-21 | 2010 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 |
2025-02-15 | 2025-03-11 | 1986 | 2025-02-21 | 2010 | 2025-03-27 | 2006 | 2025-02-21 | 2010 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 |
2025-02-14 | 2025-03-08 | 1986 | 2025-02-21 | 2010 | 2025-03-27 | 2006 | 2025-02-20 | 2005 | 2025-04-05 | 1999 |